Below are four example races - from different racemeetings - as presented in the Speedguide.
Note that horses are listed in alphabetical order with speedfigures. The first figure represents their best speed performance. The figures in brackets indicate a speed performance in the past 4 starts. This is called 'recent speed' and is a vital component of speed assessment. A 'w' beside a speedfigure indicates a performance achieved on a track rated as slow or heavy.
You may notice that the speedfigures I produce look different to traditional Beyer speedfigures - that is they are much higher numbers. I have adapted the basis of Beyer and incorporated a speed class component that adds greater differentiation between horses. I consider it to be the missing link in speed assessment.
The Speedguide now incorporates the winning speed zone easy identification:
*** meets winning speed requirements
** meets most requirements
Race 8:
At The Heads 215 (215) ***
Cascabel 176 (96)
Comic Composer 137 (137)
Dane The Rave 184 (136)
From The Terrace 168 (111)
Itimio 118 (118)
Ma Shang 152
No Vacancy 163 (150)
Shadowfax 195 (195,103) ***
Siberian 123
Silky Smooth 171
Snip Esprit 192
The Wingman 99 (99)
Translation 156 (142)
Zizz 150 (128,90)
Best speed: At The Heads; Shadowfax; Dane The Rave; Cascabel.
Best recent speed: At The Heads; Shadowfax;No Vacancy; Translation; Comic Composer; Dane The Rave; Zizz; Itimio; From The Terrace; The Wingman; Cascabel.
1 At The Heads
2 Shadowfax
3 No Vacancy
4 Dane The Rave
5 Itimio / Comic Composer
Race full of some up-and-coming horses: At The Heads best speed across all categories - and best last start speed for this meeting. Obviously his last win franked by the result with placegetters behind him running one-two at their following start (with big collect for Speedratings on Utah Saints on strength of this). Horse with a future. Hard to beat. However, there is a bit of depth. Shadowfax similarly looking to have a bright future. Disadvantaged when chasing fast speed last start. Once again a race with pace likely - but from inside draw he could get a good smother & be much stronger late. Like the prospects of either one of these top two speed horses winning this race. Outside of them it is wide open.
speed class: 102
At The Heads 1st $3.90. Shadowfax 2nd. Exacta $15.80.
Race 5 AAMI Vase:
Carrara 157 (121,117w,134)
Extra Zero 122 (116w,122)
Hanks 175 (105,175,100)
Miss With Attitude 127 (127,110w)
Morossa 103 (103)
Spacecraft 112 (90,112)
Viking Legend 127 (127,105)
Speed best: Hanks; Carrara; Viking Legend & Miss With Attitude.
Best recent speed performance: Hanks; Carrara; Viking Legend & Miss With Attitude; Extra Zero; Spacecraft; Morossa.
1 Hanks
2 Carrara
3 Viking Legend
4 Miss With Attitude
5 Spacecraft / Extra Zero
Hanks appeals as a horse with a future. Promising effort when 4th in big speed event won by Shamoline Warrior - looming up before peaking on his effort. Subsequently he dropped back in distance & only got warm the final 400m last start. Hard to beat. Carrara continues to perform well in top company. Loves MV and barrier should aid him in getting the extra trip. Viking Legend & Miss With Attitude are both suited by this distance and must be respected.
Hanks $9.50; $2.60. Spacecraft $2.80. Viking Legend $1.60. Carrara 4th. Tri 444.50. ffour $1215.70.
Race 5 Blazer Stakes:
Augusta Proud 221 (92)
Beaming 193
Cats Whisker 199 (109,120,151)
Danehill Smile 164wscratched
Estee 149 (105,98)
Gold Water 212
Hot Danish 226 (127)
Jacqueline Rouge 212
Lady Lynette 171 (130)
Neroli 192w (136)
Pravana 121
Prima Nova 175
Romneya 185 (101,129)scratched
Tempest Tost 206
Velocitea 165 (143,136)scratched
Speed best: Hot Danish; Augusta Proud; Gold Water & Jacqueline Rouge.
Best recent speed performance: Cats Whisker; Velocitea; Neroli; Lady Lynette; Romneya; Hot Danish; Augusta Proud.
1 Cats Whisker
2 Hot Danish
3 Neroli
4 Velociteascratched / Romneyascratched
5 Tempest Tost / Gold Water
Cats Whisker has best recent speed for this after just failing in the Stocks Stakes at MV when caught on the line by Zarita. Impressive mare who still looks capable of further improvement. Should be able to settle just behind the speed in this & she loves track & distance. Hard to beat. Hot Danish & continues to win in the best mares company (even with huge weights). Big danger. Lots of quality mares engaged with good chances to Neroli, Velocitea, Romneya, Tempest Tost & Gold Water.
Cats Whisker1st $7.00. Gold Water 2nd. Dane Julia 3rd.
Race 7 Myer Classic :
Zarita 204 (136,151)
Jolie’s Shinju 216 (152)
Hot Danish 226 (127,187,209)
Typhoon Tracy 271 (223,261,271,251)
Neroli 193 (136,193,190)
Gold Water 216 (216)
Dane Julia 212 (209)scratched
Lady Lynette 184 (184,136,140)
Subtle Cove 185
Glowlamp 193 (193)
Emblem Of Liberty 204
Belleza Veloz 165w (108)
Messenger 88w (88w)
Speed best: Typhoon Tracy; Hot Danish; Gold Water & Jolie’s Shinju; Dane Julia.
Best recent speed performance: Typhoon Tracy; Hot Danish; Gold Water; Dane Julia; Neroli & Glowlamp; Lady Lynette; Jolie’s Shinju; Zarita;.
1 Typhoon Tracy
2 Hot Danish
3 Gold Water
4 Glowlamp / Zarita
5 Neroli
Can the wide barrier defeat Typhoon Tracy? There is lots of early speed in this race (Jolie’s Shinju, Gold Water, Dane Julia) and the expectation is that rival jockeys will all be out to make Typhoon Tracy work as hard as possible. If these go out quickly then it is likely that Luke Nolen could slot in just behind them - and if they just try to keep her wide then he could just clear them and lead. In reality a wide draw can suit an on-speed horse as it allows them time to muster speed rather than being pressed early to hold a position from an inside draw. It appears to be a race with all concerns really about defeating Typhoon Tracy first - then considering the possibility of winning second. With her past 4 speedfigures registering 223, 261, 271 & 251 she appears to be a class above even this classy field. So maybe tactics can defeat her - although I don’t believe so. Hot Danish will come in for a lot of support given the scenario I have painted of this race. She appears most likely to have a perfect run in transit (from barrier 5) and benefit from the fixation on Typhoon Tracy. Other chances include Gold Water (always underrated), Glowlamp, Zarita & Neroli.
Typhoon Tracy $2.20. Lady Lynette 2nd. Zarita 3rd.
Example of the Speed Review:
Clients of Speedratings receive a weekly ‘speed review’. In 2009 Speedratings clients were already informed about the dominant force that So You Think would prove to be in 2010.
From the Speed Review 25th of October 2009:
I always check par values (again) when confronted by a performance far above the usual. So You Think has produced one of the biggest speed performances that I can remember - second only to the champion Might And Power.
So - on checking for any reasons why the par value could now possibly be wrong - I went back over the speed performances for MV over 2040 metres in the past 3 years. The bulk of the performances range from 100 to 170. The peaks have been few: Whobegotyou 268. Maldivian 261. Cefalu 204. El Segundo 202. All is in balance. The performance by So You Think has been phenomenal.
I have been anticipating for awhile something spectacular from So You Think. I was enthused about him in the Guineas and he ran extremely well. Against his own age - over a trip - he goes in as most preferred. But as a 3 year old - having his 5th race start against a field of multiple Group One winners - I didn’t expect it to be yesterday that he would announce that he has arrived. The brilliance of Bart. Counter intuitive. Creative. Innovative (as fellow trainer Mark Kavanagh quipped: most people at his age won’t even buy green bananas, but he buys yearlings!).
Seeing So You Think lead I thought that a win would be unlikely. Never before has he shown early speed and it seemed too ‘speculative’ to succeed. The riding genius of Glen Boss - he must surely see in ‘fly time’ with everything around him seemingly in slow motion and he having ample opportunity to plan and react at leisure. To lead all the way on an immature horses who previously displayed a come-from-behind racing pattern was exceptionally bold.
The Cox Plate of 2009 is more a story of the winner, rather than the race. No hard luck stories. Whobegotyou pulled up sore - but could not have won. Heart Of Dreams I had imagined this year testing All Silent in mile races. He will be next year. War horses Zipping and El Segundo were brave in defeat. And Manhattan Rain surprised with an equally bold - but 2.5 length inferior performance to So You Think. There is no question mark after the three words: So You Think - but rather, an exclamation mark!
And this from the Final Day of the Flemington carnival:
And what a performance by So You Think! Two consecutive performances above 300. Never achieved previously - and always considered unlikely given tempo changes in mile & middle distance races. I’m not completely forgetting All American, but I just wonder how often he will produce a performance of this standard. Naturally this is his benchmark, but I’m not sure about consistency.
I did not believe So You Think would lead. Sir Slick being scratched didn't help - but also King Mufhasa was ridden off the speed as well. Neither did Bart believe that So You Think would lead (this time giving instructions NOT to lead). A combination of Bart managing to freshen him up too well - and his coltishness (although that aspect is very safe from change). So You Think carved out ridiculous (arrogant) sectionals....